广东省城镇化与生态环境耦合水平分析与预测

摘要

协调快速城镇化过程与生态环境之间的矛盾关系是我国下一阶段城镇化工作中的重点。基于广东省2005－2013年所构建的城镇化和生态环境的评价指标体系，进行实证分析，结果显示城镇化水平呈现快速上升趋势，而生态环境水平则存在区域间的发展差异。运用耦合协调度模型计算表明，广东省及各研究对象于2009年进入基本协调区间；结合灰色预测模型对2014－2018年的耦合协调度进行预测，结果显示广东省将率先进入高度协调区间，但粤西地区则呈现明显的落后趋势。该地区需重视对生态环境的保护，加大资金投入与政策倾斜，使城镇化进程与环境建设相协调，防止逐渐恶化的生态环境成为经济建设与社会发展的制约因素。%Coordination of the contradiction between rapid urbanization and eco‐environment protection is the main point in urbanization process .The empirical research of Guangdong province from 2005~2013 is constructed based on the urbanization and eco‐environment evaluation model .T he results show that the urbanization level of Guangdong grows quickly ,however ,eco‐environment level varies between different areas .T he coupled coordination model reveals all the study objects enter the basic coordination section af‐ter 2009 and the province will enter the high coordination section firstly with the grey prediction model . The west area of Guangdong should pay attention to the eco‐environment protection and invest greatly ac‐cording to backward tendency .