Weibull型多部件备件需求量的改进算法

摘要

As the exponential method,or the mathematical model of the spare demands with exponential distribution cannot be well used to determine the spare demand of multiple rion-repairable components with Weibull-distribution and may result in a waste of resources,an improved algorithm of exponential method was proposed based on the principle of cumulative failure probability equality,and the equal relation between the Weibull distribution and exponential distribution in the number of expected accumulative failures.Then,an example was given in which the results went through Monte-Carlo simulation,and the former exponential method and the improved method were compared.The conclusion is that the result obtained with the improved method reduces the conservativeness to a large extent and is more close to the real demand when the support time is shorter than the average life-span,thereby reducing a waste of spares greatly.%针对利用指数算法(指数型备件的需求模型)确定Weibull型多部件的备件需求量过于保守、容易造成浪费的问题,根据“累积失效概率相等”原则,利用Weibull型与指数型备件在保障时间内期望累积故障次数相等的关系,提出了一种改进的指数确定算法.通过实例将改进算法的结果与蒙特卡洛模拟、改进前的结果进行比较,结果证明:当保障时间小于平均寿命时,改进指数算法的保守度大大降低,与真实需求量更加接近,从而能够有效减少备件的浪费.