按塔里木盆地水资源开发利用的历史、现状及未来发展，其与绿洲演变和生态平衡的关系为：原始阶段——生态自然平衡，古绿洲分布在河流下游；初级阶段——生态平衡失调，旧绿洲移向山前平原；低效阶段——生态环境恶化，新绿洲多分布在旧绿洲外围；合理阶段——生态恢复改善，绿洲由外延转向内部挖潜；高效阶段——生态实现良性循环，绿洲面积稳定生产力显著提高。现塔里木盆地水资源利用仅为低效阶段，必须加速水利建设，尽快实现合理、高效利用，才能使生态环境得到改善。%The relations between the history,present situation and future development of exploitation and utilization of water resources and the oasis evolution and ecological balance in Tarim River are as following:In the original stage,the ecology was in a natrual balance,and the oases were distributed at the lower reaches of the rivers; in the primary stage,the ecology was in a unbalanced state,and the oases were moved towards the piedmont plains; in the inefficient stage,the eco-environment is degenerated,and most of the new oases are distributed in the peripheries of the old oases; in the rational stage,the ecology will be recovered and improved,and the extension of the oases will be changed to tap the potentialities in the oases; and in the efficient stage, a virtuous circle of the eco-logy will be achieved,the area of the oases will be stabilized,and the productive forces will be obviously raised.At present,the utilization of water resources in Tarim Basin is only in an inefficient level,and the pace of constructing irrigation works must be quickened so as to achieve the rational and efficient utilization of water resources as early as possible,thus the eco-environment can be improved.
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