对外贸易对经济增长具有推动作用。本文结合新疆的数据，在平稳性检验的基础上，通过建立VAR，进行格兰杰因果分析，长期协整分析，建立误差修正模型，得出以下结论：新疆的对外贸易（包括进口和出口），是经济增长的重要原因，从长期来看，进口和出口均对经济增长具有明显的推动作用；短期来看，出口对经济的正向作用在滞后一期即可显现，而进口在短期具有负向作用，滞后四期才表现出对经济的正向拉动作用，明显表现出一定的时滞性。%l be torelgn trade can push the economy growth. The paper used the data ot Xmjxang, based on the statmnary test, estab- lished VAR model, formed the Granger test, long-term cointegration analysis and the error-correction model, then draw the following conclusions ： the foreign trade （ including import and export） is the important reason for growth; from the long-term, the import and ex- port obviously pushed the economy growth; from the short-term, the export＇s positive role to the economy appears in the second term, the import has the negative role in a short-term and its positive role appears in the fifth term and shows time lag.
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