基于层次-灰色关联分析法的闪电灾害风险区划

摘要

为寻求合适的闪电灾害风险区划方法，以浙江省苍南县为例，利用2007-2011年闪电监测数据、1996-2011年雷灾统计资料及基础信息数据等，从闪电灾害发生的特征出发，引入层次-灰色关联分析法，采用层次分析法确定闪电灾害风险评价指标的权重，运用灰色关联分析法确定评价对象的灰色关联系数，进而综合加权得出闪电灾害风险评价指标的灰色关联度，给出闪电灾害的风险区划。结果表明，苍南县闪电灾害风险等级区划由高到低分别是灵溪镇、龙港镇为极高风险区，宜山镇、钱库镇、金乡镇为高风险区，矾山镇、马站镇、桥墩镇、藻溪镇为中风险区，赤溪镇、岱岭畲族乡、凤阳畲族乡为低风险区。在此基础上，对该区域的风险区划结果进行了验证，表明引入的层次-灰色关联分析法适合于闪电灾害风险区划研究。研究结果为编制闪电灾害防御规划以及重点项目灾害风险评估可行性论证提供了参考，对提高闪电灾害防御的综合能力具有现实意义。%Cangnan county of Zhejiang province is chosen as a sample area to establish an effective method of light-ning disaster risk zoning.Monitoring data of lightning occurred in Cangnan during 2007-2011,statistics of lightning disasters and related basic information during 1996-2011 are used to analyze the characteristics of lightning disas-ters in Cangnan by using the method of Analytic Hierarchy Process-Grey Relational Analysis(AHP-GRA).The AHP is used to determine the weight of evaluation index,while the GRA is used to calculate the relational coefficient be-tween different evaluation indexes.The comprehensive weighted relational coefficients are then used to derive a relia-ble lightning disaster risk zoning.The results show that the risk grades in descending order are very high risk zone, including Lingxi town and Longgang town;high risk zone,including Yishan town,Qianku town and Jinxiang town;medium risk zone,including Fanshan town,Mazhan town,Zaoxi town,Qiaodun town; and low risk zone,including Chixi town,Dailing town,Fengyang town.The risk zoning results in Cangnan county are verified through ArcGIS in-formation of actual lightning disasters.The verification result shows that the AHP-GRA method is effective for light-ning disaster risk zoning.This research will provide reference for the planning of lightning disaster prevention and e-valuation of lightning disaster risk for major projects.