通货膨胀对工业经济运行效率的影响既不是单纯地促进也不是一味地掣肘,而是两者效应兼而有之,存在两体制的门限转换效应。利用TAR门限自回归方法对我国1957—2010年工业经济运行效率进行实证检验,发现最优通货膨胀门限值为2.865%。理论上,π=（R-1）/2可以认为是与工业经济运行效率最佳时相适应的最优通货膨胀的水平,据此计算我国通货膨胀变动的合理区间为2.77%—3.12%,从而为我国确定理想的通货膨胀调控目标提供了一个简易可行的参考依据。%Because of threshold switching effect, inflation is neither purely promotion nor simply constraint on the industri- al economic operating efficiency, but combination of both effects. Through empirical testing for China＇s industrial economic effi- ciency by use of TAR method, we find the optimal inflation threshold values is 2. 865% , accordingly we can calculate the rea- sonable fluctuation range of China＇s inflation is 2.77% - 3.12%. Thus, it provided a simple and good reference for our coun- try to determine the ideal inflation regulation goal.
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