Simulation of Old Urban Residential Area Evolution Based on Complex Adaptive System

摘要

On the basis of complex adaptive system theory,this paper proposed an agent-based model of old urban residential area,in which,residents and providers are the two adaptive agents.The behaviors of residents and providers in this model are trained with back propagation and simulated with Swarm software based on environment-rules-agents interaction.This model simulates the evolution of old urban residential area and analyzes the relations between the evolution and urban management with the background of Chaozhou city.As a result,the following are obtained:(1) Simulation without government intervention indicates the trend of housing ageing,environmental deterioration,economic depression,and social filtering-down in old urban residential area.If the development of old urban residential area is under control of developers in market,whose desire is profit maximization,and factors such as social justice,historic and culture value will be ignored.(2) If the government carries out some policies and measures which will perfectly serve their original aims,simulation reveals that old urban residential area could be adapted to environment and keep sustainable development.This conclusion emphasizes that government must act as initiator and program maker for guiding residents and other providers directly in the development of old urban residential area.