淮北夏半年大风预报方法的建立及检验

摘要

Based on the forecast field from the T639 numerical model and observational wind data,some indexes such as IW and other convective indexes were computed.A method for strong wind forecast during the summer half year was established in Huaibei,and the forecast results in 2011 were examined.The results show that quantitative and qualitative wind prediction results are achieved during the summer half year based on IW index from the T639 numerical model and some other indexes.Combining the various indexes and the simulated value from the T639 model,if three indexes are satisfied among four indexes,the strong wind will appear in Huaibei,otherwise it will not occur.Forecasted wind speed by IW index is relatively close to observational maximum wind speed.The two methods are indicative to strong wind forecast in Huaibei.Most strong wind weather could be forecasted accurate-ly,while the false alarm is significant and the missing forecast is not significant.%利用 T639业务数值模式预报场和大风观测资料，分别采用 IW 雷暴大风指数和多个对流指数方法，计算相对应的指标值，建立淮北市夏半年大风预报方法，得到淮北市大风的短期预报结果，并对2011年的预报应用情况进行检验。结果表明：基于 T639业务数值模式的 IW 大风指数与多指标的叠加，实现夏半年定量和定性的大风预报。将多种不稳定指标与 T639数值模式相结合的叠加预报，当4个指标中有3个满足条件时预报淮北有大风出现，否则没有大风；IW 大风指数的风速预报与实际极大风速较为接近。两种预报方法对淮北市的大风预报具有较好的指导作用，多数大风天气能够准确预报，但空报较多，漏报较少。