沈阳地区日光温室内最低气温变化特征及其预报模型研究

摘要

利用2013—2014年沈阳地区日光温室内和温室外的气象观测资料，采用相关分析和逐步回归分析方法对日光温室内最低气温的变化特征及其预报模型进行了研究。结果表明：2013—2014年沈阳地区日光温室内最低气温与温室外的前一日最高气温、前一日最低气温、当日最低气温及温室内前一日最高气温、前一日最低气温相关显著。沈阳地区四季不同天气条件日光温室内最低气温的预报模型存在一定的差异，冬季日光温室内最低气温模型的预报准确率较高，春季次之，秋季再次之，夏季日光温室内最低气温模型的预报效果较差，冬季、春季、秋季、夏季日光温室内日最低气温≤3.0℃的预报准确率分别为91％、85％、81％和79％；雨雪天日光温室内最低气温的预报准确率较高，阴天次之，晴天再次之，多云天日光温室内最低气温的预报准确率较低，雨雪天、阴天、晴天、多云天日光温室内日最低气温≤3.0℃的预报准确率分别为90％、87％、83％和77％。可见，本文建立的沈阳地区日光温室内最低气温模型的预报效果较好，可为沈阳地区中高档钢架砖混结构日光温室内最低气温的预报提供参考，具有较强的实用性。%Based on the meteorological observation data inside and outside solar greenhouse from 2013 to 2014 in Shenyang,variation characteristics and forecasting models of the minimum temperature (Tmin)in greenhouse were studied using methods of a correlation analysis and a stepwise regression analysis.The results show that Tmin inside the greenhouse is significantly correlated with the previous day′s maximum and minimum temperature outside the greenhouse,Tmin outside the greenhouse of the day,and the previous day′s maximum and minimum temperature in-side the greenhouse.Tmin forecasting models for the greenhouse are different depending on different weather types of the four seasons.Forecasting accuracy of the greenhouse Tmin is the highest in winter,followed in spring and au-tumn,and the forecasting accuracy in summer is relatively worse.The differences between observed and simulated greenhouse Tmin less than 3 ℃ in winter,spring,autumn,and summer account for 91%,85%,81% and 79%,re-spectively of the total samples for test.Forecasting accuracy of greenhouse Tmin is the highest in snowy rain days, followed in overcast days and sunny days,and the forecasting accuracy in cloudy days is relatively worse.The model accuracies for the simulated greenhouse Tmin less than 3 ℃ in snowy rain days,overcast days,sunny days, cloudy days are 90%,87%,83% and 77%,respectively.The results suggest the performance of the greenhouse Tmin forecasting model is satisfied and the models have their practical applicability,which provides a reference for the greenhouse Tmin forecast in Shenyang.