冬小麦是甘肃省主要粮食作物之一，开展甘肃省冬小麦产量动态预报对全省粮食生产和粮食安全具有重要意义。利用1985—2013年甘肃省冬麦区16个地面气象观测站逐日气象资料和冬小麦产量资料，基于积分回归原理以旬为时间尺度，分析了影响陇中、陇东、陇南地区冬小麦生产的主要气象要素和关键时期，并分别建立了3月下旬、4月下旬和5月下旬甘肃省冬小麦产量动态预报模型。结果表明：降水和温度对甘肃省冬小麦气象产量影响较大，其中降水量增加对各冬麦区基本均为正效应，尤其在麦田休闲期和返青拔节期更显著；苗期—越冬前期和拔节期—孕穗期气温升高对冬小麦为负效应，越冬后期—返青起身期气温升高对陇中和陇东冬麦区正效应较明显。通过近5a试预报检验表明，建立的冬小麦动态产量预报模型平均预报准确率达96％以上，可满足业务服务的需要。%Winter wheat is one of the major grain crops in Gansu province,so it is important to forecast its yield dynamically for agricultural production and food security. Based on daily meteorological observation data at 16 weather stations and winter wheat yield data of Gansu province from 1985 to 2013 ,the main meteorological factors and the key periods influencing winter wheat yield in Longzhong,Longdong and Longnan regions in Gansu prov-ince were analyzed according to principles of integral regression. Dynamic forecast models for winter wheat yield in the last ten days of March,April and May were established. The results show that the precipitation and tempera-ture have great influence on winter wheat yield. Increased precipitation has clearly positive effect on the winter wheat yield,especially at the fallow period and reviving jointing stage of winter wheat. Warmer temperature has an obviously negative effect on winter wheat in seedling-before winter stage and jointing-booting stage,whereas war-ming has a positive effect on winter wheat in late winter-reviving stage in Longzhong region and Longdong re-gion. Forecast verification test in the recent five years suggests that average accuracy rate of the dynamic yield forecasting model reaches above 96%,which can meet the demand by operational service.
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