Based on the non-hydrostatic version of Mesoscale Model version 5 (MMS) and the data sets of four heavy rainfall scenarios occurring in August 2001 in China,this paper investigates the impacts of diabatic physical processes on predictions of dynamic and thermodynamic elements of heavy rainfall in China,deeply analyzes the effects of convective schemes on mesoscale heavy rain simulations and discusses the feasibility of using model physics perturbations in ensemble simulation of heavy rain,The results show that diabatic physical processes have little impact on the short-range prediction of geopotential height.However,planetary boundary layer schemes and convective schemes have significant influence on moisture divergence flux,vertical velocity,and unstable stratification,which are the three basic conditions of torrential rain.The forecast deviations in different convection schemes increase rapidly in the first 12 h time periods of simulation and the deviation structures are well correlated to that of sub-grid scale rainfall,while in the later periods of simulation with less correlation.Diabatie physical processes influence the structure and evolution of the simulations.For the rain storm events with a homogeneous thermal environmental condition in China.the numerical model ensembles could be created by perturbing the planetary parameterization scheme and convective parameterization.
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