工程风险中人的不确定性因素管理研究

摘要

As the complexity of engineering and the uncertainty of human factors, risk management models couldn＇ t accurately predict the occurrence of the accident, so this article tires to apply the black swan concept into the engineering risk management. Against the expert survey applied in the risk management and considering the defects in human thought revealed by the black swan concept, the cognitive model of thinking should be applied into the judgment in the risk management process, on the basis of which, this article puts forward some preliminary thoughts in designing the questionnaire format based on the black swan concept. According to the asymmetry of the black swan, in view of the cause of accidents and the feature that the cycle of PDCA lays in with the cognitive rule, the article adds the cycle of PDCA to the total quality control, in order to reduce the occurrence of the accidents.%人的不确定性因素已经成为工程风险的主要原因,然而由于人为因素的复杂性增加了工程风险管理的难度,传统的风险测度模型很难预测风险的发生。因此,引入黑天鹅理念,针对工程风险管理中常用的专家调查法和全面质量管理模式两个关键部分,探讨了基于黑天鹅理念的专家调查问卷格式,并且在分析风险事故产生原因和PDCA循环特征的基础上,在全面质量管理模式中加入了PDCA循环的管理思想,以减少负面黑天鹅事件的影响。