基于copula函数的风力发电机组可靠性分析模型

摘要

In order to evaluate the reliability of wind turbines in a timely and accurate manner, Copula reliability model of wind turbines in the case relative with failure is established based on the reliability analysis of key components of the wind turbine.The failure rate function parame-ters of key components are calculated by the maximum likelihood estimation method.The fre-quency histogram of key components is drawn based on the failure rate function.Copula reliabili-ty model of wind turbine in the case relative with failure is established by reasonable Copula func-tion combined with the characteristics of frequency histogram.The correlation degrees among dif-ferent failures are figured out by non-parametric estimation method.The results show that the system reliability analysis model based on Copula function is much closer to the actual situation.%为实时准确评估风力发电机组的可靠性，在分析风力发电机组关键部件可靠性的基础上建立了考虑故障相关的风力发电机组Copula 可靠度评估模型。首先，运用极大似然估计法确定系统关键部件的故障率函数参数，随后绘制故障相关部件的故障率频数直方图，通过分析频数直方图的特征选取适当类型的 Copula 函数作为相关部件故障率的联合密度函数；最后，采用非参数估计法确定故障间相关程度参数，建立考虑部件故障相关的风力发电机组系统可靠度模型。与实际统计值对比，结果表明：基于Copula函数建立的模型与实际情况更接近。