Correlation Analysis of Rice Seed Setting Rate and Weight of 1 000-Grain and Agro-Meteorology over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River,China

摘要

The purpose of this study is to reveal the effects of historic climate change on rice yield over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,China,and to better adapt to climate change in the future.This study presents the relation of temperature and precipitation and rice components from 1981 to 2003 at 48 early rice stations and 30 middle rice stations. It focuses on an analysis of three stages:flowering,pre-milk,and late milk.The results show that mean maximum temperature and mean daily precipitation at the stages of flowering and pre-milk are most related to early rice yield.Yield change of middle rice is mainly because of mean precipitation change at the flowering stage.Furthermore,percentage of undeveloped grain increases as mean maximum temperature rises at the flowering stage.Over-precipitation in the reproductive stage is a major reason for reduction in yield of early rice.Consecutive rainfall and continuous high temperature can have negative effects on middle rice yield.Global warming would affect middle rice more seriously than early rice.