基于空间关联性的广深两地产业结构调整研究——珠三角经济区域背景下的考察

摘要

Using the evolution and correlation of industry structure of 9 cities in Pan Pearl River Delta as background,with SLM and GWR,this paper undertakes spatial econometrics regression to the space relation of these 9 cities＇ industry structure change from global and local field.Based on the conclusion of global regression analysis,this paper further tests the dynamic space correlation of industry structure adjustment of these two cities.The outcome shows that seen from the parameter assumption and analysis conclusion of global space econometrics,variables consumption,industry structure initial value,average GDP,technology advance rate and government intervention are obvious.Other variables are not so obvious.The further GWR regional analysis shows that industry structure initial value,foreign investor＇s direct investment and government intervention etc show heterogeneity to the industry adjustment of different cities in this region.Based on the analysis of these two aspects,this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions on the industry structure adjustment of Pan Pearl River Delta,especially to the industry structure adjustment of central cities.%本文以珠三角区域九大城市的产业结构演进与关联为背景,利用空间滞后模型SLM和地理加权回归模型GWR分全域和局域对珠三角九大城市产业结构变化的空间关系进行空间计量回归,在全域回归分析的结论基础上进一步验证广深两地局域存在的产业结构调整动态的空间关联性,结果显示：从全域空间计量的参数估计和分析结论来看,变量消费、产业结构初始值、人均GDP、技术进步率和政府干预显著,其余变量则不显著;进一步的GWR局域分析表明,产业结构初始值、外商直接投资和政府干预等因素,对区域内各城市之间的产业结构调整作用均显示出异质性。基于这两方面的分析,为珠三角区域产业结构调整,尤其是中心城市产业结构调整,提出对策建议。