技术进步、产业结构变动与污染减排--基于环境投入产出模型的研究

摘要

In recent years , China's technical progress and changing of industrial structure had a significant impact on pollution re-duction . In order to measure technical progress effect and changing of industrial structure effect which impact on pollution reduction , we use 2007 and 2010 input-output data and emissions data to construct a 14-sector environmental input -output table , and decompose completed emission factor into technical progress effect and changing of industrial structure effect . On the whole , the results show that technical progress effect is significantly greater than changing of industrial structure effect , and the role is most positive and significant for changing of tertiary industry structure on the entire pollution abatement . But the impact of technical progress is always limited , in the future development , changing of industrial structure should be more emphasis on the role in pollution reduction .%近些年，中国的技术进步和产业结构变动对污染减排产生了显著影响。为了衡量技术进步和产业结构变动对污染减排影响的效应，本文采用2007年和2010年投入产出数据和污染排放数据，构建了14部门环境投入产出表，将完全排放系数分解为技术进步效应和产业结构变动效应进行分析。分析结果表明，整体上看，技术进步效应明显大于产业结构变动效应，第三产业结构变动对整个污染减排的作用最为积极和显著。但技术进步的影响始终是有限的，在“十二五”期间和以后发展中，应更加重视产业结构变动对污染减排的作用。