我国目前处于快速城市化发展时期，加强土地风险管理对抑制洪水风险具有十分重要的作用。本文建立了太湖流域洪水管理效益分析模型，提出了土地风险管理措施在模型中的表征方式，分析了太湖流域在未来不同社会经济与气候情景下的洪水风险，计算了土地风险管理的减灾效益以及工程措施和土地风险管理相结合的综合效益。分析表明，至2050年，太湖流域未来洪水风险增长4~15倍；土地风险管理可将对应情景的未来洪水风险降低39%~50%；综合措施可将未来风险降低70%~74%。研究方法及成果能够为太湖流域洪水管理决策提供技术支撑和参考。%Affected by rapid urbanization and the global warming,the features of flood have been and will be changed significantly in China. Land use risk management is an important measure to restrain the grow⁃ing flood risk. Taking the Taihu Basin as an example, a flood management benefit assessment model has been established. The future flood risk, the benefit of land use risk management and the integrated flood management measures are evaluated. The results reveal that by 2050 the flood risk in the Taihu Basin will increase by 4~15 times under different climate change and socio-economic scenario. The land use manage⁃ment will decrease the future flood risk by 39%~50%,while the integrated measures may decrease the fu⁃ture flood risk by 70%~74%. Based on the results, some suggestions are made for adjusting the strategic planning of flood management in the Taihu Basin.
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