汽车市场需求预测建模及其应用研究

摘要

In this article, an exponential increasing model and a VAR model are adopted to forecast and analyze the automobile popularization of China. A cointegration and error correction model is adopted to analyze the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 on automobile market demand of China. A new forecasting method is proposed base on the similarity phenomenon exists in automobile's popularization to forecast the medium and long term automobile market demand of China.%采用指数增长模型和向量自回归VAR等模型对中国汽车普及进行预测分析.采用协整误差校正模型,分析2008年全球金融危机对中国汽车市场需求的影响.根据汽车普及存在相似性现象,提出了一种新的预测方法,对中国中长期汽车市场需求进行了预测.