中国 OFDI 与国内产业结构优化升级关联度分析--基于行业选择与国别选择的灰色关联分析∗

摘要

为研究中国 OFDI 的行业选择及国别选择与国内产业结构优化升级的关联度，采用灰色关联分析方法，构建产业结构优化升级指标，并利用2006-2012年我国8个行业、173个国家的对外直接投资数据，对中国OFDI 的行业选择及国别选择与国内产业结构优化升级的关联度进行实证分析。结果表明，金融业、制造业、采矿业的产业结构优化升级效用明显，而信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业、建筑业、租赁和商务服务业的产业结构优化升级效用不明显；我国对发展中国家的 OFDI 与国内产业结构优化升级的关联度最高，对新兴工业化国家的 OF-DI 与国内产业结构优化升级的关联度最低，对发达中国家的 OFDI 与国内产业结构优化升级的关联度居中。%In order to study the correlation between Chinese OFDI's industry choice and location selec-tion and the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure,this paper uses the gray correla-tion analysis method,constructing the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure index,using the Chinese OFDI data in 8 industries and 173 countries from 2006 to 2012 ,to do the empirical analysis.The results show that the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in financial industry,manufactur-ing industry,mining industry are of the highest effect.However,the effect of the transmission of infor-mation,software and information technology services,construction industry,leasing and business service industry is not obvious.The correlation between Chinese OFDI to the developing countries and the optimi-zation and upgrading of the domestic industrial structure is the highest,while the correlation between Chi-nese OFDI to the newly industrialized countries and the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure is the lowest,and the correlation between Chinese OFDI to the developed countries and the opti-mization and upgrading of the domestic industrial structure is in the middle degree.