服务业 FDI、技术进步与产业安全基于分位数回归方法的经验研究∗

摘要

Based on the theoretical model of FDI in services industry and technological progress,we es-timate the influence of FDI exerted on the industrial security from the perspective of technological pro-gress,by using series data from 1 996 to 2013 and quantile regression method.The result shows that over-all effect services FDI conducted on technological progress is positive.Quantile regression further reveals that indirect effects of services FDI is negative,while the direct effect is positive.Specifically,direct effect is much more distinct in the low and middle level of services FDI,while indirect effect is bigger in the high level of services FDI.Studies confirm that services FDI has positively advocated industry security in the early stages of the technological progress,however,as time goes by,services FDI will threaten the indus-try development.%基于技术进步视角，构建服务业FDI影响产业安全的理论模型，并采用1996-2013年的时序数据和分位数回归方法进行检验。实证结果表明，服务业 FDI 对技术进步的总效应为正；分位数回归进一步揭示，服务业FDI 对技术进步的直接效应为正、间接效应为负，并在技术进步的低中分位点上，服务业 FDI 的直接效应大于间接效应，而在技术进步的高分位点上，服务业 FDI 的直接效应小于间接效应。研究证实，在技术进步的初期，服务业FDI 会对产业安全发展产生直接的正向推动作用，但随着时间的推移，服务业 FDI 会威胁其产业安全。