长沙市房地产市场需求预测模型研究

摘要

To build the demand forecasting model of real estate market in China,the paper takes empirical study of real estate market demand of Changsha for their impact factors.The principal component analysis of factors affecting the classification,filtering out the most representative of the real estate market demand factors are： the resident population,the savings deposits of urban and rural residents,and total GDP.It forecasts that,during the years of 2012-2014,new real estate sales of Changsha will fall slightly from the l895.73 Million square meters every year to 17,203,800 square meters.It can be expected that the real estate market will recovery in 2015,and the next round of cycle volatility will begin.%构建我国房地产市场需求预测模型,以长沙市房地产市场需求作为研究对象对其影响因素进行实证研究,运用主成分分析法对影响因素进行分类,筛选出影响房地产市场需求的最具代表性的因素为常住人口、城乡居民储蓄余额和GDP总量,并据此预测2012-2016年的长沙市房地产市场需求,结果显示：2012-2014年长沙市新建商品房销售面积将从l895.73万平方米逐年小幅下跌至1720.38万平方米,2015年市场复苏并进入下一轮周期性波动。