2010年上海世博会对旅游业影响力的定量评估

摘要

选择世博会对上海旅游业的影响力作为研究对象进行定量研究,采用本底趋势线模型得到不举办世博会的情况下上海旅游业发展水平曲线,将其与举办世博会情况下的旅游业发展曲线进行比较,由此定量评估2010世博会对上海旅游业发展的影响力。%Quantitative assessment on influence of Expo on Shanghai tourism industry was studied in this paper. The background trend line model was used to predict the tourism industry develo- ping situation in such a case that Expo was not held in Shanghai. The prediction curve was com- pared with the curve got under the situation of holding Shanghai Expo so as to quantitatively e- valuate the influence on the development of Shanghai tourism industry.