城镇化、工业化与农业现代化互动关系研究--以江西省为例

摘要

城镇化是扩大内需的重要途径，工业化是增强综合国力的强大动力，农业现代化是提高生产力的根本举措。三者并非孤立，存在着互动效应，城镇化推动工业化与农业现代化的发展，工业化加快城镇化与农业现代化的进程，农业现代化提升城镇化与工业化的水平。在对三者相互影响、共同作用的互动效应进行理论分析的基础上，依据江西省1978～2013年城镇化、工业化与农业现代化相关数据，采用向量自回归模型（ VAR ），进行实证分析。研究结果显示：江西省实证分析结果与理论分析结果存在着相悖之处，城镇化的推进抑制了农业现代化水平的提高；工业化的发展阻碍了城镇化的推进；工业化与农业现代化之间并未实现相互促进的关系。分析相悖原因主要可能来源于江西省独特的省情。%Urbanization is an important measure to expand domestic demand.Industrialization is the power-ful driving force for enhancing the comprehensive national strength.Agricultural modernization is the funda-mental measures to improve productivity.Additionally, the three indexes are not isolated from each other, which are interacted.Urbanization can promote the development of industrialization and agricultural moderni-zation;Industrialization can accelerate the process of urbanization and agricultural modernization;Agricultural modernization can improve the level of urbanization and industrialization.This paper is based on the theoreti-cal analysis of the three indexes’ interaction effect, then do empirical analysis through VAR model with the data of urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization from 1978 to 2013.The study find out:the result of empirical analysis is different with the result of theoretical analysis.What’ s more, the improve-ment of urbanization depressed the improvement of agricultural modernization;the development of industriali-zation blocked the advanced of urbanization;urbanization and agricultural modernization can’ t facilitate each other.In conclusion, the reason why analysis runs counter is result from the special situation of Jiangxi Prov-ince.