东海沿岸台风及风暴潮灾害特征及成因

摘要

基于东海沿岸4个验潮站的风场、潮位观测资料以及Unisys Weather的312次台风路径观测资料,对东海沿岸台风的路径、发生频率以及风暴潮增水特征进行系统分析。结果表明：西北行台风占台风总数的96%,造成的灾害约占灾害总数的80%；风暴潮灾害的第一显著周期为5 a,同时具有与厄尔尼诺现象相关的11 a 显著周期；东海潮位有逐年增加的趋势,平均3 cm/a,最大达5 cm/a；台风期间主要为东风和南北风向,这种风向使得水体向岸或者沿岸输运,在一定程度上增加了增水的程度。%Based on the wind and tide observation data from four long-term tide gauge stations along the East China Sea and observed typhoon paths during 312 typhoon events obtained by Unisys Weather, a systematical analysis was conducted on the paths and frequencies of the typhoons and the characteristics of storm surges along the East China Sea. The results show that typhoons that moved northwestward accounted for 96% of the total and that disasters caused by this type of typhoon accounted for 80% of the total. The first significant period of storm surge was five years, significantly associated with the El Ni?o cycle of 11 years. The tide in the East China Sea had a rising trend, with an average value of 3 cm/a and a maximum value of 5 cm/a. During the typhoon period, the wind blew mainly in the eastern and north-southern directions, which caused the water to be transported to the shore or along the coast and enhanced the increase of the water level.