基于模糊识别理论的无资料地区设计径流典型年选择

摘要

According to the fuzzy recognition theory , the representative year of design runoff in a reference basin was recognized , and a fuzzy recognition model of the representative year of design runoff was established .The eigenvalue of the grade variable was used to select the optimal fuzzy scheme for the representative year of design runoff.The results refined by the hydrologic analog method were applied to a design basin to determine the representative year of design runoff .This study shows that using the fuzzy recognition theory combined with the hydrologic analog method for runoff calculation in ungauged basins provides a quantitative calculation method for the representative year of design runoff , and makes up for the shortcomings of the traditional qualitative method , which is subjective and random .%根据模糊识别理论，对参证流域设计径流典型年进行模糊识别，构建设计径流典型年的模糊识别模型；运用级别变量特征值对设计径流典型年进行优选。对设计径流典型年按照水文比拟法进行修正，移植到设计流域上，推求设计流域的设计径流典型年。研究表明：将模糊识别理论与水文比拟法相结合进行无资料地区径流的分析计算，为无资料地区设计径流典型年的选择提供了定量的计算方法，弥补了无资料地区传统定性的选择设计径流典型年主观随意性较大的不足。