基于L－V生态模型的项目组合风险研究

摘要

针对项目组合风险，构建了基于L－V生态模型的项目组合风险预测模型；探讨了两项目组合风险系统平衡点性态和稳定性条件，用专家评分法给出项目组合风险权重值，得到两项目组合风险值，分析了随时间变化，两项目组合风险变化趋势；用Matalb数学软件数值模拟算例，验证了该模型有效性。%For project portfolio risk , the project portfolio risk prediction model based on the L-V ecological model was constructed .The systems of equilibrium behavior and stability conditions of two project portfolio risk were discussed .Portfolio risk weight was given value by expert grading method to get two projects portfolio risk .The change trend over time of two portfolio risk was analyzed .The numerical simulation example of Matlab mathematical soft-ware was used to verify the validity of the model .