广义极值模型在早期强余震预报中的应用

摘要

一次主震发生后，往往会产生很多余震，其中强余震的危害性很大。以汶川余震震级资料为基础，对余震数据建立广义极值模型，应用最大似然估计计算出相应参数，并进行了分布拟合检验。利用建立的广义极值模型预测汶川震后一个月内最大余震震级和发生的概率，发现与实际情况基本吻合，这说明了极值理论是早期强余震预报中一种行之有效的方法。%Often a lot of aftershocks occurred after a major earthquake and strong aftershocks have the great harm .Taking Wenchuan after-shock magnitude data as the foundation ,we establish the generalized extreme value model of the aftershock data ,using maximum likelihood estimation to calculate the related parameters ,and the distribution fitting test .We predict maximum magnitude of aftershock in one month after the Wenchuan earthquake and probability of occurrence by using generalized extreme value model ,and found the results are consistent with the actual situation ,so that the extreme value theory is an effective way to the prediction of early strong aftershock .