Study on optimization of the population system and its coordination with natural resources and environment in the Qaidam Basin

摘要

The population system is the only subsystem tha has charecteristic of subjectivity in theregional PRED system. Influenced by the particular status quo of natural resources and environmentconditions, the population subsystem of the Qaidam Basin is very different from those of otherregions’. Based on the on-the-spot investigation to the Qaidam Basin in July 1997, the authors of thispaper sum up several characters of the population subsystem of the Basin. (1) Population mainlyconsisting of the big volume of immigrants and floating population increases very fast. (2) With highpopulation mobility there was great discrepany between the actual number of population (aggregatepopulation) and the statidtical population. (3) Degree of urbanization is very high, and employmentconcentrates mainly on the industrial and teftiary industrial sectors. (4) Sex ratio remains veryunbalanced, especially in the youth group of population which exerts high pressure on employmentand training because of the young age structure. (5) Population quality is relatively high as a wholeWhile educahonal level characterizes the undeveloped regions. In order to predict the futurepopulation of the Basin. according to the characters of population system, this paper puts forward away called dividing-steps-forecast-sum to do the prediction till 2050, use both modeling forecastingmethod and empirical evaluation. The results indicated that the total population of the Basin whllreach 1 .28 million in 2050. Among them, the natural increment and immigrant and floating incrementoccupy 34.99% and 60.86%, respectively, with another 4.13% of special population. In terms ofcharactedstics of population and predicted results as well as the status quo of natural resources andenvironment this paper suggests several thoughts to optimize and adjust the population system of theQaidam Basin. They are, firsuy, to control the number of population as well as improve thepopulation quality, and secondly, to reghate the floating population to assort them withsocioeconomic development in the Basin. Above all, the most important step is to throw high level ofscience and techniqte into the Basin’s socioeconomic system to enhance the carrying capacity ofresources and environment and improve the coordinated relationship among population, resources