组合SSA与ARMA模型预报电离层TEC

摘要

针对总电子含量TEC非线性、非平稳的特性,将SSA方法引入到TEC预报中,对SSA分解并筛选合并后的分量进行ARMA模型预测,然后叠加各个分量的预报值.采用IGS提供的2010年电离层TEC数据进行实验,结果表明,利用该组合方法预报5d的TEC的平均相对精度为92％,比仅用ARMA模型提高4％.%Based on the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of total electric contents time series,the combination of SSA method and ARMA model was proposed to predict TEC.In the combination,ARMA model is used to predict the data which had been decomposed and filtered by SSA method,and the predicted value of each component is overlaid.The results calculated by the combination for 2010TEC data show that the mean relative precision of TEC prediction for 5 days is 92％ by the combination,and the accuracy is improved of 4％,comparing with individual ARMA method.