此次由美国次贷危机引发的全球性金融危机促使人们重新审视金融体系的顺周期性。通过引入VECM模型对1998年-2012年的季度数据进行实证分析，结论表明我国商业银行信贷具有顺周期性，并从资本监管、贷款损失准备计提等四个方面详细分析了我国商业银行信贷顺周期的影响因素。我国监管当局通过对此次金融危机的反思，认为应当实施宏观审慎的逆周期监管政策，针对我国银行信贷的顺周期性，要加强宏观审慎监管与微观审慎监管的协调、建立前瞻性的资本监管机制、完善贷款损失准备计提方式，以促进商业银行的稳健经营，防范系统性风险。%The global financial crisis triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis prompted people to re-examine the pro-cyclicality of the financial system. Empirical analysis of quarterly data for 1998-2012 by introducing VECM model, the conclusion that China's commercial banks credit procyclicality and from the capital regulation, loan loss provision four aspects detailed analysis of China's commercial bank credit Shun the cycle impact factors. China's regulatory authorities by the reflection of the financial crisis the macroprudential counter-cyclical regulatory policies that should be implemented to strengthen the pro-cyclicality of bank credit, the coordination of macro-prudential supervision and micro-prudential supervision, the establishment of a forward-looking capital regulation mechanism, improve the loan loss provision to promote the sound operation of commercial banks to orevent systemic risk.
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