Risk assessment in poplar plantations:a case study from northern Iran

摘要

Linear risk programming was used to determine the optimum cultivation pattern to increase incomes of poplar farmers.Seven clones of Populus deltoides Bartr.ex Marsh.were examined in Guilan province,northern Iran.Growth and price data were taken from previous research at the Safrabaste Poplar Research Station and in interviews with farmers.The Lingo software was used to analyze the data in different forms of E.The results show that when risk was considered,the optimal solution included the clones Pd63/51-x1,-Pd72/51-x3,Pd73/51-x4 and Pd79/51-x6.There was a high growth fluctuations of the clones Pd69/55-x2,Pd77.51-x5,and Pd caroliniensis-x7 and were not included in cultivation plans.Furthermore,the existing farm plans executed by local farmers,is neither profitoriented nor efficient in terms of income risk management according to risk efficient frontier.These results could help farmers with different levels of risk-aversion to select proper planting plans.