我国城镇化、工业化和金融发展的相互关系研究

摘要

Based on the co-integration test,Granger causality test and the variance decomposition,this paper re-searches on the relationship between China’s urbanization, industrialization and financial development with the data between 1992 and 2012. The result shows China’s urbanization is ahead of industrialization in the study period,which is in accordance with the theory of“Qian Yisai’s development model”. The development of capital market and expan-sion of financial scale have not played its due role in promoting urbanization and industrialization. In the long run,the capital market and loan-to-deposit ratio will impact on urbanization significantly,the urbanization and financial devel-opment impact on industrialization significantly. According to the result, this paper puts forward some relevant policy recommendations.%本文基于协整理论、格兰杰因果检验和方差分解，利用我国1992-2012年时间序列数据，对我国城镇化、工业化和金融发展之间的相互关系进行研究。结果显示：在研究区间内，我国城镇化领先于工业化，符合钱-塞的“发展模型”理论；资本市场的发展和金融规模的扩大并没有对城镇化和工业化起到应有的促进作用；在长期内，资本市场和存贷比对城镇化影响显著，城镇化和金融发展对工业化影响显著。本文根据研究结果，提出了相关政策建议。