全球金融危机前后的国际储备比较研究

摘要

This paper evaluates the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) and structural changes in the pat-terns of hoarding international reserves (IR) and find that developed countries display different demand behaviors for IR from developing countries. This paper also confirms that the appropriate level of IR is not necessarily constant and the determinants of IR hoarding evolve with developments in the global economy. Based on the analysis of historical pat-terns of IR, this paper studies the possible links between our estimates of IR holding and the observed exchange rate movements.%本文通过评估全球金融危机（GFC）和结构变化对于国际储备（IR）积累模式的影响，认为发展中国家和发达国家对于国际储备的需求模式呈现不同态势，一国国际储备的合适水平并不是一成不变的，其决定因素会随着全球经济发展产生变化。同时，在对国际储备的历史模式分析的基础上，本文对国际储备预测结果与汇率变动之间可能存在的联系进行了研究。