出口补贴、企业所有权与外国对华的反倾销调查——基于Poisson模型的理论和实证分析

摘要

文章以中国出口导向型经济实践为基础,通过理论建模确立了五个理论假说,它们分别阐明了出口补贴、企业所有权、贸易报复威胁以及WTO贸易制度与外国对华反倾销风险之间的关联性。文章还采用Poisson模型的GEE、FE和RE回归方法,估计了印度、美国、欧盟、阿根廷、土耳其、巴西、南非和澳大利亚等8个国家和地区1995-2009年对华反倾销调查的面板数据,从经验上验证了外国对华反倾销调查的数量与中国的出口退税和对外反倾销调查强度成正比,与外资控制在华出口企业所有权的强度成反比。%Based on the export-oriented economic practice in China,this paper constructs a partial equilibrium model and raises five theoretical assumptions which state the correlation between export subsidies and foreign antidumping risk,the one between corporate ownership and foreign antidumping risk,the one between a threat of trade retaliation and foreign antidumping risk,and the one between WTO trade system and foreign antidumping risk respectively.It employs the CEE,RE and FE regression methods of Poisson model to estimate the panel data of antidumping investigations against Chinese products conducted by India,the United States,the European Union,Argentina,Turkey,Brazil,South Africa and Australia from 1995 to 2009,and empirically confirms that the number of foreign antidumping investigations against Chinese products is proportional to Chinese export tax rebate and the strength of Chinese antidumping investigations against foreign products and inversely proportional to foreign ownership in exporters in China.