In order to resolve the problems encountered in the process of forecasting operation and maintenance manpower during the design and development phase, including the difficulty to collect the input data of the forecast models and their imprecise and unauthentic output results, an operation and maintenance manpower forecasting model is established based on support activity flow described by functional flow diagrams. The typical mission of equipment is analyzed and the quantity of operation and maintenance support activities happened in the duration of the mission is calculated on the basis of the typical mission's data and equipment's reliability data. The man's working hours and maximum number required by the bottom support activities of the functional flow diagrams are calculated. A bottom-up approach to sum the total man' working hours and maximum number by the operation and maintenance support in the duration of the mission is presented. At last, the proposed model is demonstrated via a practical case of aircraft, which proved that the model is corrective and effective.%为解决研制阶段装备保障使用与维修人力资源需求预测过程中数据收集困难、预测精度不高等问题,建立了基于保障活动流程的装备保障人力资源需求预测模型.模型计算了研制阶段装备典型使用任务时的使用与维修保障活动次数;基于功能分析框图,计算框图底层保障活动所需的人员工时及单个活动所需最大人员数量,逐层向上汇总并获得装备使用任务阶段内所需的人员总工时和人员总数.通过算例验证模型的合理性与工程适用性,为研制部门预测装备使用与维修保障人力资源需求提供参考.
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