基于改进的AHP房地产开发项目投资风险综合评价

摘要

Real estate development is a high input, high-yield investment activities,which has a high degree of uncertainty in the process of development. It provides investors with high-yield and high risks as well. Thus,it attempts to apply an improved three-scale AHP to the evaluation of the investment risk in real estate development projects,and a comprehensive evaluation model of investment risk based on the Improved AHP is put forward. Then through case verification, the results show that this method performs well in assessing the feasibility of real estate development program as it can combine both qualitative with quantitative factorsand it is simple,objective and practical,so it provides a good basis for real estate developers to avoid investment risk effectively.%房地产开发是一项高投入、高收益的投资活动，其开发过程中存在高度的不确定性，在为投资者提供高收益可能的同时，也蕴含着相应的高风险。鉴于此，将改进的三标度AHP应用到房地产开发项目的投资风险评价中，同时采用TOPSIS （理想点法）对各方案进行排序，尝试建立了基于改进的AHP房地产开发项目投资风险综合评价模型。结果表明，该方法对房地产开发项目投资风险进行评价，能够较好地结合定性与定量因素对房地产开发方案的可行性进行评估，具有操作简便、结果客观和切实可行等优点，为房地产开发商有效规避投资风险提供依据。