区域滑坡风险综合评估的三要素

摘要

区域滑坡风险综合评估应该包括三方面要素,即:滑坡区域风险分布滑坡风险概率、滑坡风险损失.作者在滑坡风险区划的基础上,查明风险分布的状况,评估风险影响的地区范围.根据滑坡的诱发因素,分析发育的滑坡特点,评估滑坡发生的概率.采用受灾面积占评估区域的损失率统计,评估可能受灾损失的规模.将三要素评估迭加,建立了滑坡风险综合评估模型.并将此模型在四川省攀枝花市米易县进行了示范研究,最后得到米易县全县滑坡风险中等偏低的结论,这与研究区的实际情况基本一致,取得了较好的应用效果.%The distribution, probability and damage of landslide are three principal factors of the integrative assessment for regional landslide risk. The distribution and influence range of landslides are assessed on the basis of landslide risk zonation, and the probability of landslide is calculated according to the analysis of inducing factors and characteristics of landslides development. ; the extent of damage is estimated by the percentage of damage region comparing with study area. The landslide risk integrative assessment model is established by overlaying the three principal factors. This model was applied in the Miyi County, Panzhihua City, Sichuan Province, the risk degree of the study area is lower-middle level which is consistent with the actual situation after the risk assessment.