考虑风电和负荷的季节特征,搭建一种高风电穿透变电站母线日内同时刻净有功功率分布的随机模糊模型.通过曲线拟合对特定高风电穿透变电站母线净有功功率历史数据进行概率特征分析,获取其概率密度函数;基于概率分布参数模糊性,获取特定置信水平下的模糊隶属函数;定义母线净有功功率为随机模糊变量,分季度建立母线净有功功率的随机模糊不确定模型.实例仿真结果表明:该模糊模型所得净有功功率处于历史相应时刻净有功功率上下限的概率大于90%,适用于高风电穿透母线净有功功率仿真.%A random fuzzy model of bus daily net active power was built with high wind generation penetration. According to the seasonal characteristics of wind power and load, the model was set up quarterly. Firstly, the probability distribution characteristics were analyzed and the probability density function of bus daily net active power was obtained by curve fitting. Secondly, the probability density function was analyzed and fuzzy membership functions were obtained under a certain confidence level. Then bus net active power was defined as random fuzzy variables based on the uncertainty theory, and the random fuzzy uncertainty model for the bus net active power was built quarterly. Simulation results show that the probability of the results within historical data limits is more than 90%, which proves the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model. The proposed model and method can be effectively used in the network with high wind power penetration.
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