How to assess the global biodiversity and predict its declining trend and associated impacts on the well-being of mankind has turned out to be one of the important orientations of the current study on biodiversity over the world. The connotation of, approaches to and achievements in global biodiversity assessment have been elaborated by combining recent advancement in the study on global biodiversity assessment. The conceptual framework of driving-force-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) is currently the major framework in use in most biodiversity assessment projects. Based on objectives of the assessments, the methods of biodiversity assessment can be classified into three main types, i. e. index assessment, model simulation, and scenario analysis. Currently, the global 2010 target assessment indicator framework, the integrated model to assess the global environment (IMAGE)/GLOBIO model, and the scenario models set up on environmental outlooks of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), Global Environment Outlook (GEO), and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) are most commonly used in the global assessment projects. The results of a number of global assessment projects show that the declining trend of the global biodiversity has not yet been effectively curbed, and will even be accelerated in this century. In the future, the study should go deep in understanding the relationship between biodiversity, ecosystem service and human well-being, and exploring for development of a 2020 global assessment indicator framework and a multi-scenario, multi-model and multi-ecosystem based integrated biodiversity assessment method. China should conscientiously sum up its experience in studying theories and methodology for global biodiversity assessment, strengthen construction of its 2020 target assessment indicator framework and biodiversity monitoring network, develop area-specific integrated biodiversity assessment models and scenario analysis methods with proprietary intellectual property rights, conduct periodically integrated assessment of the biodiversity of the country, get to know status quo and developing trend of its biodiversity, so as to provide services to its decision-makers in respect to preservation and management of biodiversity.%评估和预测全球生物多样性丧失趋势及其对人类福祉的影响,是当前国际生物多样性研究的重要方向之一.结合全球生物多样性评估的最新研究进展,对全球生物多样性评估的内涵、方法和成果进行了阐述.驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)概念框架是当前生物多样性评估项目主要使用的评估框架.按照评估目的的不同,可将生物多样性评估方法划分为指标评估、模型模拟和情景分析3种主要方法,其中全球2010年目标评估指标框架、全球环境综合评估模型(IMAGE)/全球生物多样性评估模型(GLOBIO)组合以及政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的《排放情景特别报告》(SRES)以及千年生态系统评估(MA)、全球环境展望(GEO)和世界经济合作组织(OECD)环境展望等项目建立的情景模式是全球评估项目中主要采用的评估方法.多个全球评估项目的研究结果表明,全球生物多样性丧失趋势没有得到有效遏制,在21世纪,其速度将进一步加快.在今后的研究中,仍需在理解生物多样性、生态系统服务和人类福祉之间的关系,全球2020年评估指标框架,以及发展基于多情景、多模型和多生态系统的综合评估方法等方面进行深入探讨.中国应认真总结全球生物多样性评估理论和方法方面的研究经验,加强中国2020年目标评估指标体系和中国生物多样性监测网络建设,发展适合中国区域特点的具有自主知识产权的生物多样性综合评估模型和情景分析方法,定期对全国生物多样性进行综合评估,切实掌握全国生物多样性现状及变化趋势,为中国生物多样性保护和管理决策提供服务.
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