随着经济全球化和贸易自由化的发展,世界各国之间的联系越来越密切.由于汇率是各国之间贸易结算的价格,汇率变动对一国出口的影响至关重要,也成为影响一国经济增长重要因素之一.在当前人民币持续升值的背景下,美元贬值对作为传统行业的我国纺织服装行业的出口会产生何种影响,学术界的研究结论不一.以往研究认为人民币升值只会导致出口减少,尤其纺织服装产品出口会大幅度减少,但通过运用加入虚拟变量的协整检验和误差修正模型证明发现:人民币汇率改革前后纺织服装行业出口差异明显,长期来看汇率的升值对纺织服装出口是有利的,短期内则产生负面影响.%With the development of economic globalization and trade liberalization, the contact of the countries in the world is becoming more and more closely. As an important medium of trade settlement between the countries , the exchange rate becomes an important factor affecting a country' s economic stability. Different academic opinions exist about the impact of American dollar depreciation on Chinese textile industry in the circumstance of RMB appreciation. Previous researches believe the appreciation of the RMB will only lead to reducing exports, especially for the textile and clothing products export. By using co-integration and error correction model, the paper fins that there are significant differences before and after the reform of RMB exchange rate for the exports of textile and garment industry, it benefits in long-term exchange rate appreciation and negatives in short-term on textile and garment export.
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