一种通过贡献矩阵评估电力系统脆弱性的方法

摘要

With the rapid development of network technology, safe and stable operation of power system has attract-ed more and more attention. This paper puts forward a method of vulnerability assessment of power system based on contribution matrix. The basic idea is derived from the generation of its assessment evidence along with corre-sponding index raw data source in the risk assessment. Then, according to selected model structure matrix the con-tribution of evaluation evidence is established. Finally, combining D-S evidence theory and the basic probability, the paper distributes the mass matrix, selecting index of single point trust value as the whole vulnerability risk as-sessment results. Through the concrete example, it verifies the feasibility. The method can combine the correlation of the indexes, which is more effective for comprehensive evaluation system of vulnerability risk.%随着电网技术的飞速发展，电力系统的安全稳定运行越来越受到人们的重视。文中提出了一种通过贡献矩阵来评估电力系统脆弱性的方法，其基本思想是依据在风险评估中各指标原始数据的来源对应生成其所属的评估证据，而后根据所选取的计数模型构成评估证据的贡献矩阵，最后结合D-S证据理论和基本概率分配mass矩阵，选取单点信任度值大的指标作为整体脆弱性风险评估结果。文中还通过具体算例验证了其可行性，此方法结合了各评估指标的相关性，能较为有效地对系统的脆弱性风险进行综合评估。