考虑市场需求的PPP项目超额收益分配研究

摘要

Due to the long concession period, there exists the major risk of the market demand variability for PPP projects. The traditional revenue distribution mode fails to consider the fact that market demand exceeds the project's designed production capacity, which causes the increase of investment. And the one-way excess rev-enue distribution pattern is unable to motivate effectively all partners involved. Therefore, based on the existing research, this paper introduced the risk preference and reciprocal preference, divided the demand into two kinds, the one higher than the project's designed production capacity and the other lower than the project's de-signed production capacity, and then established the new excess revenue distribution modes respectively. By breaking the Nash equilibrium of the traditional revenue distribution mode, the proposed excess revenue distri-bution mode increases revenues for investors, raises the investment in production and realizes economic and so-cial values of PPP projects.%PPP项目特许期长,市场需求作为PPP项目的主要风险存在一定的变化性.传统的收益分配模式,无法有效调动各参与方的积极性.在现有研究的基础上,引入风险偏好和互惠偏好.将市场需求分为高于或低于设计生产能力两个部分,建立与之相应的超额收益分配模型.打破传统模式下的纳什均衡,促使投资方为获得更多的收益,加大投入提高项目的生产,充分发挥PPP项目的经济和社会价值.