Future Performance Prediction of Research Infrastructure Based on Past Performance

摘要

Research infrastructure is crucial for development of research,and thus the evaluation of its performance is important.However,existing researches mostly focus on its past observations,lacking of a prediction for future. In this paper, procedures are proposed to predict the distribution for the number of papers published in a certain future year. The publication reliability,which is defined as the probability that the number of published papers in the future year is bigger than a pre-specified number,is evaluated. Illustrative examples are proposed to show the applications of the model.