马尔可夫模型在过程企业管道维修中应用

摘要

A Markov model based on leakage before break (LBB) is applied to study the effects of maintenance activities on the failure probability of pipe systems in process industries .The model can predict the influence of complex maintenance plans (including the pressured seal ,etc .) on the pipe failure probability ,w hich is significant for quantitative assessment of maintenance plans .According to features of pipe maintenance in petrochemical industries in China , pipe is distinguished into four states , success state , flaw state , leak state and rupture state , similarly constant coefficient differential equations have been deduced on the pipe failure probability with the time after establishing a LBB four‐states Markov model ,and these constant coefficient differential equations can be solved with Shengjin formula .At last ,a practical case is calculated applying the model in a maintenance activity of pipe thinning to testify the reliability of the model .%　　一种基于泄漏后破裂（LBB ）的马尔可夫模型被应用于研究过程工业中的维修活动对于管道失效概率的影响，该模型可以预测复杂维修方案（包含带压堵漏等内容）对于管道失效概率的影响，这对于维修方案的定量评估有重要意义。根据中国石化企业中的管道维修特点，将管道状态分为完好、可探测缺陷、泄漏和破裂4种状态，相应地建立了LBB四状态马尔可夫模型，进而推导出了在维修方案影响下管道失效概率随时间变化的常微分方程，并应用盛金公式求解该微分方程，最后通过一个管道减薄维修的案例验证了该马尔可夫模型计算结果的可靠性。