合同能源管理模式(EMC)中节能服务公司(ESCO)所承担风险的动态性、复杂性严重阻碍其在公共建筑能耗监测领域的应用进程.为此,本文运用系统动力学方法,从节能服务公司角度,在分析公共建筑能耗监测风险系统因果反馈关系的基础上,构建了基于合同能源管理理念的公共建筑能耗监测风险系统动力学模型,并运用Vensim PLE软件对该模型进行仿真模拟,结果表明:当前合同能源管理模式中节能服务公司实施公共建筑能耗监测项目所面临的主要风险是成本风险和市场风险,运营管理风险次之,技术风险相对较小.最后,基于上述结论,分别从政府和节能服务公司的角度,提出了相关对策和建议,以期推动合同能源管理模式在公共建筑能耗监测领域的应用.%The dynamism and complexity of the risk of Energy Management Company ( EMC ) in energy service company ( ESCO ) is a serious impediment to its application in the field of public building energy consumption monitoring. From the view of ESCO, this paper analyzes the causal feedback relations of risk system and establishes the risk system model about the energy consumption monitoring of public building based on the concept of EMC, using method of system dynamics and Vensim PLE to simulate the mold. The results show that the main risk which the ESCO faced in the energy consumption monitoring project of public building is the cost risk and market risk, the second risk is the operational risk management, and the technical risk is relatively small. Finally, based on the above conclusion, we puts forward the related countermeasure and the suggestion from the view of the government and ESCO, so that we can push the application process of contract energy management mode in the field of public building energy consumption monitoring.
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