GDP model for Chinese energy modeling based on empirical production function

摘要

In many energy models, GDP is an exogenous variable, so that variables within energy model are not able to change the value of GDP. Based on empirical production function, a GDP model has been established in this paper using capital stock, urbanization rate and population size as independent variables. It has been found that urbanization rate is a kind of integrated indicator of labor quantity and the education level of labors in China. And it also takes away the labor surplus in rural area in China. The forecasting results show that the model is robust. The results have the same tendency as the results from famous CGE model and the results from responsible Chinese authorities, and the numbers of GDP growth rates are also similar in 50 years. It has been concluded that the model is a good candidate for energy model as an endogenous vadable.