吉林省工业“三废”污染与经济发展的关系--基于EKC曲线

摘要

We make the environmental Kuznets model ( EKC ) simulation curve, according to the main economic development indicators ( by GDP per capita ) and industrial pollutants "three wastes" ( waste gas, industrial waste water, industrial SO2 and industrial solid waste emissions) statistics in Jilin Province during the years of 2003—2012. Through the study, we found that (1) during 2003—2012, the second industry was the main source of Jilin Province economic growth, non-coordinated development exist in the economy and environment, the curve fitting the economic index and environmental index does not completely have the characteristics of EKC curve;(2) Jilin industrial waste water and waste gas pollution are to the left of EKC curve on the rise, the relevant departments should intensify efforts to control pollution emissions; ( 3 ) the conditions of Jilin SO2 and industrial solid waste pollution are both becoming better. But it will take a long time to strengthen efforts to control pollution to cross the "turning point", preventing EKC "turning point" evolving into "fluctuation".%根据吉林省2003—2012年经济发展主要指标(以人均GDP代表)和工业“三废”主要污染物(工业废水、工业废气、工业SO2和工业固废)排放量的统计资料，进行环境库兹涅茨曲线( EKC曲线)模拟分析。通过研究发现：(1)吉林省2003—2012年经济增长主要来源于第二产业，经济与环境之间存在非协调发展问题，其经济指标与环境指标的拟合曲线并不完全具有EKC曲线特征；(2)吉林省工业废水、废气污染状况位于EKC曲线左侧，呈上升趋势，应加大力度控制污染排放；(3)吉林省工业SO2、固体废弃物污染状况开始向良性化方向发展，但仍要长时间加大控制力度，使污染跨过“转折点”，防止EKC曲线的“转折点”演变成“波动点”。