一欧佩克成员国行为一致性与国际油价波动

摘要

OPEC is the most important supplier of the world oil market,as well as the greatest economic monopoly group. Therefore, the behavior consistency within its member nations along with the effect on the international oil price should be emphasized. On the basis of the data ranging from 1980 to 2012,the positive analysis is as follows:there was consistency within OPEC's member nations to a certain extent. The entropy within the member nations of OPEC in oil supply elasticity to price enjoyed a little relationship with inter-national oil price in the short term,yet there was not clear cause-effect relationship between them in the long term. The influence of OPEC on international oil price is very limited.%欧佩克是世界石油市场最重要的供给者，也是世界上最大的垄断组织卡特尔，其对国际油价的影响力似乎已经成为常识。但是，根据对1980-2012年相关数据的实证研究发现：与非欧佩克样本国家相比，欧佩克成员国行为一致性并不太高；尽管欧佩克供给价格弹性熵值在短期与国际油价存在一定因果关系，但长期来看，两者基本不存在因果关系；欧佩克对国际油价的影响非常有限。