拱顶罐罐顶腐蚀数据的统计分析

摘要

The health status of the tank roof was evaluated to strengthen the management of storage tanks, to grasp the corrosion condition of the tank roof accurately. Generalized extreme value ( GEV) distribution was adopted as statistical model for corrosion depth of the tank roof and the model for practical problems was built by statistic of the maximum. L-moments method was used for estimating the parameters of the model and the statistical law of the corrosion was analyzed. The results show that according to the calculation and analysis of the corrosion data of the five vaulted tank roofs from Shengli Oilfield, the maximum depth accords with the GEV distribution III (Weibull distribution). The corrosion depth of tank roof fits the GEV distribution III very well by Kolmogorov inspection.%为加强储罐的管理,准确把握储顶的腐蚀状态,对罐顶的健康状况进行分析评价.采用广义极值分布作为罐顶腐蚀深度的统计模型,对腐蚀深度最大值进行极值统计,构造实际问题的统计分析模型,并用L-矩法估计模型的参数,分析罐顶腐蚀的统计规律.对胜利油田某联合站5个拱顶罐罐顶腐蚀数据进行统计分析.结果表明,罐顶腐蚀最大深度符合广义极值分布的Ⅲ型分布(Weibull分布),经柯尔莫哥洛夫检验,极值Ⅲ型分布能较好地拟合罐顶的腐蚀深度.