高速铁路建设碳减排的算法与评判

摘要

Analysis and calculation were conducted on the amount of direct emissions of carbon from the high-speed rail sector,complete product consumption during production relative to carbon emissions and full demand for products relative to carbon emissions as well as the composition of high-speed railway carbon reductions.By calculating the impact and inductance of carbon emissions as well as complete marginal carbon emissions reduc-tions throughout the industry,the role and influence of high-speed railway carbon emissions throughout the rail industry were analyzed.The gray mean GM (1 ,1 )model was used to predict the direct carbon emissions of high-speed railway over the next five years,to examine the accuracy of the model,to propose carbon emissions reduction coefficient of elasticity,and to quantify the influence of carbon emissions reductions in the high-speed rail industry on other industry sectors and total carbon emissions reductions.The results showed that high-speed rail contributed little to the total carbon emissions and is most consistent with the requirements of low-carbon transport.%对高速铁路碳直接减排量、完全消耗碳减排量和完全需要碳减排量以及高速铁路碳减排量的组成进行分析计算；通过计算碳减排影响力和感应系数、行业边际完全碳减排量,分析高速铁路碳减排在整个铁路行业中的作用和影响；采用灰色均值 GM(1,1)模型,对高速铁路未来5年直接碳减排进行预测,检验模型的精度,提出碳减排弹性系数,量化高速铁路碳减排对其他行业部门和总碳减排的影响程度。结果表明,高速铁路对总碳减排的推动作用小,是最符合低碳要求的交通方式。